78 Contextual Factors

The decision intelligence framework behind DestinyGuide. Each factor refines scenario probabilities and timing signals.

A. Decision Framing (8)

Core parameters that define the decision context and constraints

1

Objective Clarity

Ordinal (1–5)

How clear and measurable the goal is.

2

Decision Type

Categorical

Enter/exit/expand/M&A/hiring/pricing/procurement/ads/positioning/pilot, etc.

3

Time Horizon

Categorical

Short/medium/long, or months.

4

Reversibility

Ordinal (1–5)

Cost/difficulty to roll back.

5

Success Metric Type

Categorical

Revenue/profit/retention/NPS/compliance/risk reduction, etc.

6

Hard Constraints Count

Integer

Number of hard limits (budget, headcount, legal, tech).

7

Alternatives Count

Integer

Number of explicit/implicit options.

8

Risk Tolerance

Ordinal (1–5)

Conservative ↔ aggressive posture.

B. External & Market (14)

Market dynamics, competitive landscape, and external environmental factors

9

Industry

Categorical

Stated sector/vertical.

10

Market Size & Growth

Ordinal (1–5)

Growth/"blue ocean" signals.

11

Competitive Intensity

Ordinal (1–5)

Monopoly/oligopoly/fragmented; "red ocean" cues.

12

Demand Trend

Ordinal (1–5)

Rising/flat/declining demand.

13

Seasonality/Cyclicality

Binary

Holiday/season/fiscal‑cycle sensitivity.

14

Macro Sensitivity

Ordinal (1–5)

Exposure to rates/FX/inflation/cycle.

15

Regulatory Clarity

Ordinal (1–5)

Pending/gray/strict/supportive signals.

16

Geopolitical Risk

Ordinal (1–5)

Country/region uncertainty.

17

Tech Disruption Pace

Ordinal (1–5)

Speed of tech shifts.

18

Supplier Bargaining Power

Ordinal (1–5)

Upstream concentration/lock‑in.

19

Buyer Bargaining Power

Ordinal (1–5)

Enterprise concentration/tendering power.

20

Network Effects Strength

Ordinal (1–5)

Two‑sided/social/data flywheel.

21

Channel Accessibility

Ordinal (1–5)

Access barriers/quotas of key channels.

22

Local Market Signal Strength

Ordinal (1–5)

Real‑time regional cues mentioned.

C. Product & Value Proposition (8)

Product maturity, differentiation, pricing power and other value-related factors

23

Product Maturity/TRL

Ordinal (1–5)

Prototype/pilot/production/at scale.

24

Differentiation

Ordinal (1–5)

Clarity of unique value.

25

Pricing Power

Ordinal (1–5)

Ability to premium/price leadership.

26

Unit Economics

Ordinal (1–5)

Positive/threshold/negative signals.

27

Switching Costs

Ordinal (1–5)

Compatibility/migration/lock‑in.

28

IP & Compliance Readiness

Ordinal (1–5)

Patents/certs/audits readiness.

29

Reliability & Quality Signal

Ordinal (1–5)

Warranty/defects/SLA/downtime cues.

30

Roadmap Certainty

Ordinal (1–5)

Milestones and delivery risk.

D. Customer & Segmentation (8)

Customer characteristics, segmentation clarity and behavioral factors

31

Target Segment Clarity

Ordinal (1–5)

ICP precision.

32

Pain Severity

Ordinal (1–5)

Must‑have vs nice‑to‑have.

33

Willingness to Pay

Ordinal (1–5)

Budget/price anchors present.

34

Adoption Stage

Categorical

Innovators/early/majority/late.

35

Churn Propensity

Ordinal (1–5)

Refund/alternatives/dissatisfaction hints.

36

Retention Drivers Clarity

Ordinal (1–5)

Repeatable value levers.

37

NPS/Sentiment Hint

Ordinal (1–5)

Referrals/repeat/quotes.

38

Contract/ARPU Structure

Categorical

One‑off/subscription/usage/tiers.

E. Growth & Channels (8)

Growth strategies, sales channels and distribution factors

39

Channel Readiness

Ordinal (1–5)

Direct/partner/e‑commerce maturity.

40

Sales Cycle Length

Categorical

Weeks/months/quarters or ranges.

41

CAC Visibility

Ordinal (1–5)

Known CAC/lead cost history.

42

Conversion Baseline

Ordinal (1–5)

Known stage conversion or heuristics.

43

Viral Coefficient Hint

Ordinal (1–5)

Invites/shares/UGC cues.

44

Partner Alignment

Ordinal (1–5)

Incentive fit/exclusivity.

45

Brand Awareness Baseline

Ordinal (1–5)

Search/media/endorsement.

46

Distribution Concentration Risk

Ordinal (1–5)

Reliance on a single platform/channel.

F. Operations & Delivery (8)

Operational capabilities, team structure and delivery factors

47

Team Experience Density

Ordinal (1–5)

Domain/serial‑founder/big‑tech background.

48

Capacity & Utilization

Ordinal (1–5)

Slack vs bottleneck.

49

Key‑Person Dependency

Ordinal (1–5)

Single‑point‑of‑failure risk.

50

Process Maturity

Ordinal (1–5)

Standardization/automation/documentation.

51

Supply‑Chain Resilience

Ordinal (1–5)

Multi‑sourcing/backups/geodiversity.

52

Lead Time

Categorical

Days/weeks/months; compressibility.

53

Inventory Coverage

Categorical

Safety stock/turnover days.

54

QA/Compliance Pass Rate Hint

Ordinal (1–5)

Internal/external audit cues.

G. Finance & Capital Constraints (7)

Financial health, funding status and capital-related factors

55

Cash Runway (Months) Hint

Categorical

<3 / 3–6 / 6–12 / >12.

56

Burn Rate Hint

Ordinal (1–5)

High/medium/low vs revenue or funding.

57

Liquidity Buffer

Ordinal (1–5)

Credit lines/cash equivalents.

58

External Funding Probability Hint

Ordinal (1–5)

Investor intent/TS signs.

59

Debt/Covenant Risk

Ordinal (1–5)

Repayment/ratio covenants.

60

Breakeven Proximity

Ordinal (1–5)

Achieved/near/far.

61

Downside Capacity

Ordinal (1–5)

Max loss/tolerable drawdown.

H. Timing & Uncertainty (6)

Time-sensitive factors and uncertainty-related considerations

62

Deadline Rigidity

Ordinal (1–5)

Hard window vs soft window.

63

Option Value of Waiting

Ordinal (1–5)

Value of delaying to learn more.

64

Information Arrival Schedule

Categorical

T+30/T+60 style milestones.

65

Market Volatility Hint

Ordinal (1–5)

High/medium/low volatility cues.

66

Major‑Event Proximity

Ordinal (1–5)

Regulation/holiday/launch/earnings.

67

Blackout Window

Binary

Any period when action is restricted.

I. Risk & Compliance (5)

Risk exposure and compliance-related factors

68

Legal/Litigation Exposure

Ordinal (1–5)

Contract/IP/enforcement risk.

69

Data & Privacy Risk

Ordinal (1–5)

PII/regulatory frameworks.

70

Safety/Health Risk

Ordinal (1–5)

Production/site/user safety.

71

Reputation Risk

Ordinal (1–5)

Media/social sentiment risk.

72

ESG/Sustainability Impact

Ordinal (1–5)

Environmental/labor/governance.

J. Evidence Quality & Bias (6)

Data quality indicators and cognitive bias factors

73

Data Completeness

Ordinal (1–5)

Coverage of critical variables.

74

Sample Size & Recency

Ordinal (1–5)

Fresh, comparable data volume.

75

Case Similarity Score

Ordinal (1–5)

Match to historical cases.

76

Source Reliability

Ordinal (1–5)

Primary/secondary/rumor.

77

Cognitive Bias Hint

Categorical

Overconfidence/confirmation/sunk‑cost, etc.

78

Goal‑Specification Bias Hint

Categorical

Metric substitution/goal drift, etc.